Over the past 24 hours Joaquin’s “cone of uncertainty” has been trending further and further east and that trend continues this afternoon.
The European Model, one of our more reliable models has been onto this from the beginning and now most of our guidance is onto this resolution as well.
Could the trend reverse itself? Yes, but not likely.
The thinking earlier in the weak was that perhaps the European Model was “crazy” since it was the only model suggesting a turn out-to-sea but seeing how things are starting to evolve in the model trends and in the overall meteorological set up it'is becoming apparent that Joaquin is destine for the North Atlantic.
As of 11AM he remains a Category 4 hurricane near the central Bahamas with top winds of 130 mph. He is now moving north at 3 mph. He will track well off shore over the weekend then likely turn out-to-sea! He will make his closest pass to us early Tuesday morning as a Cat 1 or Tropical Storm. (Some 150-250 miles off shore) He will weaken as he interacts with the colder Atlantic waters.
If this pattern holds Joaquin will have no impact on western Mass. Eastern Mass and Rhode Island will still have to deal with high seas, dangerous rip currents and gusty winds. 20-40 mph over the open waters.
Meanwhile, today and tomorrow will be mainly cloudy, cool and gray with a couple of showers here and there. Temperatures will stay in the 50s! Things will dry out a bit more on Sunday with some brightening or a bit of sunshine.
Copyright 2015 Western Mass News (Meredith Corporation). All rights reserved.