Meteorologists discuss what to expect as we head into summer

(Western Mass News photo)

One side benefit from a solid winter snow is our ground water levels are the strongest they've been in three years.

Just this year, the Quabbin Reservoir rose from 84.9 percent total capacity in January to 95.5 percent capacity in May.

The National Weather Service in Boston said that we are "in a good place" entering summer - historically one of the drier seasons for us.

Damp, dank and depressing! These aren't exactly the adjectives you want to use to describe the weekend, especially as we head into summer.

However, that's exactly what they were the last two weekends.

If the last two Saturdays are any indication of things to come for the summer, those outdoor weddings and cookouts may be in jeopardy.

However, thankfully, when it comes to the weather, the past doesn't always equal the future and when it comes to this summer, there are no real clear signals indicating how the summer will play out one way or the other.

"A lot of times people will talk about the La Nina and El Nino. It's kind of in a neutral state, kind of in-between. There is really nothing we can say coming out of that. It's hard to say one way or the other. The official Climate Prediction Center is better odds for a hotter summer and a wetter summer," ," said Joe Dellicarpiri with the National Weather Service.

One key feature to our summer weather is the Bermuda high, which builds off-shore near Bermuda and it helps to bring in the heat and humidity.

The stronger the high, the hotter our summer.

The Bermuda high helps bring the Pioneer Valley about 15 days of 90 plus degree weather. We've already had two this month.

Cold fronts will bring us rounds of showers and storms, which may lead to several First Warning Weather Days, but the same fronts also supply western Massachusetts with refreshing spells of warm, dry air from Canada.

If you're playing the odds, when planning that summer vacation, you may want to go with late August or September. Typically, it's our driest, most tranquil weather. This is when the ocean water is warmest and the atmosphere is a bit more stable.

"Without a tropical system getting in the way. Usually, it is a drier time of year for us here in New England and usually, it can be very pleasant. September, there are still some good beach days," Dellicarpiri explained.

When it comes long-range predictions, they must be taken with a grain of salt. Small changes in the atmosphere can cause big changes in our daily weather and most certainly in long-range forecast which, according to most prognosticators, will lead to an average to slightly above average summer in both temperature and rainfall.

Copyright 2018 Western Mass News (Meredith Corporation). All rights reserved.

First Warning Meteorologist

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