According to our computer model, the Miami Dolphins will beat the New England Patriots when they meet at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, September 17 (at 8:20 PM ET). We have a complete breakdown, regarding the point spread, total and final score, available in this article.

The Dolphins put up 364.5 yards per game on offense last season (sixth in NFL), and they ranked 18th defensively with 337.8 yards allowed per game. Offensively, the Patriots ranked 26th in the NFL with 314.6 yards per game last season. Meanwhile, they ranked eighth in total defense (322 yards allowed per contest).

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Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions and Picks

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Dolphins (-1.5) Over (46.5) Dolphins 32, Patriots 26

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Patriots Betting Info

  • The implied probability of a win by the Patriots, based on the moneyline, is 48.8%.
  • New England put together a 7-8-1 record against the spread last year.
  • The Patriots were an underdog by 1.5 points or more eight times last year, and covered the spread in two of those matchups.
  • Last year, eight New England games hit the over.
  • Patriots games averaged 42.5 total points last season, four fewer than the total for this matchup.

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Dolphins Betting Info

  • Based on this contest's moneyline, the Dolphins' implied win probability is 55.6%.
  • Miami put together a 9-8-0 record against the spread last season.
  • When playing as at least 1.5-point favorites last season, the Dolphins had an ATS record of 5-5.
  • A total of eight Miami games last season went over the point total.
  • The point total average for Dolphins games last season was 46.9, 0.4 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.

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Patriots vs. Dolphins 2022 Scoring Insights

Pts Pts Allowed Home Pts Home Pts Allowed Away Pts Away Pts Allowed
Miami 23.4 23.5 21.6 15.5 24.9 30.6
New England 21.4 20.4 19.5 17.9 23.1 22.7

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